Serie A
2026/27 · Regular Season - 5
Match analysis preview
On 20 September 2026, AC Milan will face Lecce in the 5th round of Serie A. In their last five matches, AC Milan have recorded two wins, two draws and one defeat, while Lecce have won three and lost two.
| # | Team | P | Scored | Conceded | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 |
|
4 | 7 | 4 | 8 |
| 12 |
|
4 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
Squad news
Injuries and suspensions: AC Milan — Lecce
No reported player absences
M. Berisha
Lacking Match Fitness
⚽0
0
0
O. Gandelman
Inactive
⚽0
0
0
W. Geubbels
Ankle Injury
⚽0
0
0
Pre-match statistics
Form over the last five matches: AC Milan — Lecce
2 wins, 2 draws, 1 losses in the last 5 matches
In their last five home matches, AC Milan have recorded one win, one draw and three defeats. Over this period, the team have scored 5 goals and conceded 8, averaging 1,0 goals scored and 1,6 conceded per game; their most recent home match ended in a 2:0 win over Venezia.
Overall, AC Milan are unbeaten in their last four matches, recording two wins and two draws. Across five games, they have scored 8 goals and conceded 6, averaging 1,6 and 1,2 goals per match respectively.
1 wins, 1 draws, 3 losses in the last 5 matches
In their last five home matches, AC Milan have recorded one win, one draw and three defeats. Over this period, the team have scored 5 goals and conceded 8, averaging 1,0 goals scored and 1,6 conceded per game; their most recent home match ended in a 2:0 win over Venezia.
Overall, AC Milan are unbeaten in their last four matches, recording two wins and two draws. Across five games, they have scored 8 goals and conceded 6, averaging 1,6 and 1,2 goals per match respectively.
3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses in the last 5 matches
In their last five away matches, Lecce have recorded three wins, one draw and one defeat, scoring seven and conceding four goals. Away matches have produced averages of 1,4 goals scored and 0,8 conceded; the team have scored in four of the five games. Their most recent away outing ended in a 0:1 defeat to Cagliari, preceded by a run of four unbeaten away matches, including three consecutive wins. Overall, across their last five matches in all competitions, the team have recorded three wins and two defeats, scoring six and conceding seven goals — an average of 1,2 and 1,4 respectively.
3 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses in the last 5 matches
In their last five away matches, Lecce have recorded three wins, one draw and one defeat, scoring seven and conceding four goals. Away matches have produced averages of 1,4 goals scored and 0,8 conceded; the team have scored in four of the five games. Their most recent away outing ended in a 0:1 defeat to Cagliari, preceded by a run of four unbeaten away matches, including three consecutive wins. Overall, across their last five matches in all competitions, the team have recorded three wins and two defeats, scoring six and conceding seven goals — an average of 1,2 and 1,4 respectively.
Pre-match statistics
Head-to-head: AC Milan and Lecce
Lecce have failed to take points in their last five head-to-head meetings: AC Milan have won all five, including the last three in a row. Milan have scored 12 goals and conceded two, keeping a clean sheet in four of the five encounters.
Prediction
AC Milan vs Lecce prediction
There is currently no sufficiently reliable statistical signal for a prediction in this section.
AC Milan — Lecce
1:1
Draw (X)
Estimated goals: 1.2 — 1.35. The score is a model estimate, not an exact promise.
What is xG: What Is xG (Expected Goals) in Football? · How the xG.Football Prediction Model Works
33.3%
Estimated probability
Factors supporting this pick
Overall form · points per game: 1.6 : 1.8
Estimated scoring potential: 1.2 : 1.35
Factors against
Home / away form · points: 0.8 : 2
Average goal difference: 0.4 : -0.2
Head to head · points: 3 : 0
Pre-match statistics
Corners: AC Milan — Lecce
There is currently no sufficiently reliable statistical signal for a prediction in this section.
Select a sample to see its matches
Average per match
7.2
Team 3.4
Opponent 3.8
Above the line in 1 of 5 matches
Average per match
6
Team 2.8
Opponent 3.2
Above the line in 1 of 5 matches
Average per match
8
Team 3
Opponent 5
Above the line in 2 of 5 matches
Average per match
8.6
Team 4.2
Opponent 4.4
Above the line in 2 of 5 matches
Prediction
Prediction: Shots on target — AC Milan — Lecce
In AC Milan's home matches, the hosts average 4,2 shots on target, while their opponents average 5,6, giving a total average of 9,8; the 8,5 line has been beaten in three of the five games, with no sustained run of high or low figures. In Lecce's away matches, the team average 4 shots on target and their opponents 6,4, with a total average of 10,4, and the line has landed in four of the five matches. The model recommends Over 8,5 with a rating of 4\/5; no estimated probability is given, while the prediction is supported most strongly by Lecce's away sample, supplemented by three line hits in five head-to-head meetings.
60%
Estimated probability
Shots on target Over 8.5 — odds 1.83 (Bet365). Bookmaker-implied probability without margin: 50%.
Select a sample to see its matches
Average per match
8.8
Team 4
Opponent 4.8
Above the line in 2 of 5 matches
Average per match
9.8
Team 4.2
Opponent 5.6
Above the line in 3 of 5 matches
Average per match
10.8
Team 3.6
Opponent 7.2
Above the line in 4 of 5 matches
Average per match
10.4
Team 4
Opponent 6.4
Above the line in 4 of 5 matches
Prediction
Prediction: Yellow cards — AC Milan — Lecce
In AC Milan's home matches, across a sample of five games, the hosts average 1,8 yellow cards, while their opponents average 2,4, giving a total average of 4,2 bookings; the 3,5 line has been beaten in four of the five matches in a row. In Lecce's away matches, the team average 3,4 cards and their opponents 1,8, with a total average of 5,2, while the 3,5 total has landed in all five games. The model recommends Over 3,5 with a rating of 3\/5 and an estimated probability of 60,17%; the prediction is supported most strongly by AC Milan's home sample and Lecce's away sample, while the line has not been beaten in any of the five head-to-head meetings.
60%
Estimated probability
Yellow cards Over 3.5 — odds 2.13 (Pinnacle). Bookmaker-implied probability without margin: 44.5%.
Select a sample to see its matches
Average per match
3.6
Team 2
Opponent 1.6
Above the line in 4 of 5 matches
Average per match
4.2
Team 1.8
Opponent 2.4
Above the line in 4 of 5 matches
Average per match
2.8
Team 2.2
Opponent 0.6
Above the line in 2 of 5 matches
Average per match
5.2
Team 3.4
Opponent 1.8
Above the line in 5 of 5 matches
How to read this prediction: How the xG.Football Prediction Model Works · Both Teams to Score (BTTS): How the Market Works and How to Predict It · Over/Under 2.5 Goals: How to Calculate It and When It Lands · Football Prediction & Betting Glossary
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Bookmaker odds
Saved odds: AC Milan — Lecce
How to read odds: Odds and Probability: How to Convert Them and Find the Bookmaker Margin
Match result (1X2)
Totals
Both teams to score
Corners: total
Cards: total
Shots on target: total
Both teams to score
Yes · 0%
No · 0%
Shots on target: total
Over +8.5 · 0%
Under +8.5 · 0%
Match result (1X2)
AC Milan · 0%
Draw · 0%
Lecce · 0%
Totals
Over +2.5 · 0%
Under +2.5 · 0%
Corners: total
Over +9 · 0%
Under +9 · 0%
Cards: total
Over +3.5 · 0%
Under +3.5 · 0%
Match information
Match information: AC Milan — Lecce
Kick-off20 September 2026, 21:45
CompetitionSerie A
Season2026/27
Round / stageRegular Season - 5
VenueNo data
CityMilan
RefereeF. La Penna
Statistics will appear after a data source is connected.
FAQ
Frequently asked questions: AC Milan — Lecce
01 What time does AC Milan vs Lecce kick off?
AC Milan vs Lecce (Serie A) kicks off 20 September 2026, 21:45.
02 Who is the referee for AC Milan vs Lecce?
The referee for AC Milan vs Lecce is F. La Penna.
03 What are the over/under odds for AC Milan vs Lecce?
For AC Milan vs Lecce, bookmakers offer 1.67 on over 2.5 goals and 2.27 on under 2.5 goals.
04 What are the match winner odds for AC Milan vs Lecce?
Bookmaker odds for AC Milan vs Lecce: AC Milan — 1.27, Draw — 5.87, Lecce — 11.46.
05 What is the recent form of AC Milan and Lecce?
AC Milan: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses in the last 5 matches, goals 8–6. Lecce: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in the last 5 matches, goals 6–7.
06 How many times have AC Milan and Lecce played each other?
Our database has 5 previous head-to-head meetings for these teams.
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