Championship
2026/27 · Regular Season - 8
Match analysis preview
On 19 September 2026, Burnley and Derby will meet at Turf Moor in the 8th round of the Championship. In their last five matches, Burnley have recorded one win, one draw and three defeats, while Derby have won one match and lost four.
| # | Team | P | Scored | Conceded | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 |
|
8 | 9 | 17 | 4 |
| 22 |
|
8 | 7 | 14 | 5 |
Squad news
Preliminary squads: Burnley — Derby
Squads may change before kickoff.
Squad news
Injuries and suspensions: Burnley — Derby
A. Barnes
Injury
A. Ramsey
Hamstring Injury
⚽1
1
0
B. Humphreys
Inactive
⚽0
0
0
D. Satpaev
Hamstring Injury
⚽0
0
0
E. Agyei
Injury
H. Mejbri
Inactive
⚽0
1
0
J. Banel
Injury
J. Beyer
Hamstring Injury
J. Cullen
Knee Injury
C. Forsyth
Knee Injury
⚽0
0
0
D. Murkin
Hamstring Injury
F. Bilbija
Back Injury
⚽0
0
0
H. Meister
Injury
⚽0
0
0
J. Widell Zetterstrom
Knee Injury
⚽0
0
0
M. Clarke
Calf Injury
P. Agyemang
Achilles Tendon Injury
Pre-match statistics
Form over the last five matches: Burnley — Derby
0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in the last 5 matches
At home, Burnley have failed to win any of their last five matches, drawing four and losing one. They have scored 7 and conceded 8 goals — an average of 1.4 and 1.6 per game respectively. Their most recent home match ended in a 1:2 defeat by Bristol City, following a 1:1 draw with Middlesbrough; Burnley have scored in each of their last five home matches but have kept no clean sheets.
Their overall form is less productive in terms of points: Burnley have recorded one draw and four defeats in their last five matches, scoring 5 goals and conceding 11, an average of 1.0 and 2.2 per game. The team have not won any of those matches but have scored in each one.
0 wins, 4 draws, 1 losses in the last 5 matches
At home, Burnley have failed to win any of their last five matches, drawing four and losing one. They have scored 7 and conceded 8 goals — an average of 1.4 and 1.6 per game respectively. Their most recent home match ended in a 1:2 defeat by Bristol City, following a 1:1 draw with Middlesbrough; Burnley have scored in each of their last five home matches but have kept no clean sheets.
Their overall form is less productive in terms of points: Burnley have recorded one draw and four defeats in their last five matches, scoring 5 goals and conceding 11, an average of 1.0 and 2.2 per game. The team have not won any of those matches but have scored in each one.
1 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses in the last 5 matches
Away from home, Derby have won two and lost three of their last five matches, with no draws. The visitors have scored seven goals and conceded nine, averaging 1.4 and 1.8 goals per game respectively; they have scored in four of the five matches and conceded in every one. Their most recent away match ended in a 0:3 defeat by West Ham.
Their overall form is worse: Derby have won once and lost four of their last five matches, with three of those defeats coming in their most recent fixtures. The team have scored three goals and conceded nine, averaging 0.6 goals per match and 1.8 conceded.
2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses in the last 5 matches
Away from home, Derby have won two and lost three of their last five matches, with no draws. The visitors have scored seven goals and conceded nine, averaging 1.4 and 1.8 goals per game respectively; they have scored in four of the five matches and conceded in every one. Their most recent away match ended in a 0:3 defeat by West Ham.
Their overall form is worse: Derby have won once and lost four of their last five matches, with three of those defeats coming in their most recent fixtures. The team have scored three goals and conceded nine, averaging 0.6 goals per match and 1.8 conceded.
Pre-match statistics
Head-to-head: Burnley and Derby
The available head-to-head record contains only one meeting between the teams — their Championship match on 10 December 2024 ended 0:0. There was no winner, and neither side scored.
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08.04.2025 |
|
|
0:0 |
| 10.12.2024 |
|
|
0:0 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.12.2024 |
|
|
0:0 |
Match timeline
Match events: Burnley — Derby
Igor Júlio
Foul
1 - 0
Zeki Amdouni
Assist: Lucas Pires Silva
Anel Ahmedhodzic
Foul
Largie Ramazani
Replaced: Marcus Edwards
Ugo Raghouber
Replaced: Reo Hatate
Oscar Fraulo
Replaced: Alex Mowatt
Mohammed Fuseini
Replaced: Ryan Hedges
D. Ozoh
Foul
Josh Laurent
Dissent
Jamie Vardy
Replaced: Zeki Amdouni
Andréas Hountondji
Replaced: Jacob Bruun Larsen
Rhian Brewster
Replaced: D. Ozoh
Corey Blackett-Taylor
Replaced: Charlie Taylor
Ugo Raghouber
Foul
Corey Blackett-Taylor
Foul
Oliver Sonne
Replaced: Lucas Pires Silva
1 - 1
Mohammed Fuseini
Assist: Rhian Brewster
Burnley
Metric
Derby
1
Goals
1
6
Shots
16
2
Shots on target
6
1
Shots off target
3
3
Blocked shots
7
4
Shots inside the box
9
2
Shots outside the box
7
4
Corners
6
9
Fouls
12
3
Offsides
4
47 %
Ball possession, %
53 %
3
Goalkeeper saves
1
433
Total passes
387
344
Accurate passes
313
4
Yellow cards
2
Red cards
1
Goals
6
Shots
16
2
Shots on target
6
1
Shots off target
3
3
Blocked shots
7
4
Shots inside the box
9
2
Shots outside the box
7
4
Corners
6
9
Fouls
12
3
Offsides
4
47 %
Ball possession, %
53 %
3
Goalkeeper saves
1
433
Total passes
387
344
Accurate passes
313
4
Yellow cards
2
Red cards
Goals
1
Shots
Shots on target
Shots off target
Blocked shots
Shots inside the box
Shots outside the box
Corners
Fouls
Offsides
Goalkeeper saves
Total passes
Accurate passes
Yellow cards
Red cards
Player statistics
Player ratings: Burnley — Derby
11
Z. Amdouni
F · 73 min · goals: 1
7.8
23
Lucas Pires
D · 89 min · assists: 1
7.2
3
Max Alleyne
M · 90 min
6.9
5
R. Hatate
M · 61 min
6.8
19
L. Ramazani
F · 29 min
6.7
15
A. Ahmedhodžić
D · 90 min
6.6
22
O. Sonne
D · 1 min
6.6
17
A. Hountondji
F · 17 min
6.5
9
J. Vardy
F · 17 min
6.5
44
Igor
D · 90 min
6.4
14
C. Roberts
D · 90 min
6.3
8
U. Raghouber
M · 29 min
6.3
37
G. Coudert
G · 90 min
6.3
29
J. Laurent
M · 90 min
6.2
10
M. Edwards
M · 61 min
6.1
7
J. Bruun Larsen
F · 73 min
5.9
1
M. Weiß
G · 0 min
0.0
2
K. Walker
D · 0 min
0.0
18
H. Ekdal
D · 0 min
0.0
27
A. Broja
F · 0 min
0.0
16
M. Fuseini
F · 24 min · goals: 1
8.2
23
J. Ward
D · 90 min
7.5
28
D. Sanderson
D · 90 min
6.7
20
A. Mowatt
M · 66 min
6.7
18
C. Taylor
D · 82 min
6.6
10
R. Brewster
F · 12 min · assists: 1
6.6
6
S. Langås
D · 90 min
6.5
9
C. Morris
F · 90 min
6.4
26
R. Hedges
M · 66 min
6.4
29
O. Fraulo
M · 24 min
6.3
33
C. Blackett-Taylor
F · 8 min
6.3
4
D. Ozoh
M · 78 min
6.3
11
S. Szmodics
M · 90 min
6.2
31
J. Vickers
G · 90 min
6.1
8
B. Clark
M · 90 min
6.0
22
M. Johnston
D · 0 min
0.0
12
R. O'Donnell
G · 0 min
0.0
15
L. Salvesen
F · 0 min
0.0
27
L. Travis
M · 0 min
0.0
42
Raymond Offor
D · 0 min
0.0
Prediction
Burnley vs Derby prediction
A draw is the most likely outcome, with a predicted score of 2:2. This is supported by the similar expected scoring figures: 1.5 goals for Burnley compared with 1.45 for Derby, while the goal difference in both overall samples is −1.2. However, the home and away form figures do not fully align, so the statistics point more towards an even match than a clear advantage for either side.
Burnley — Derby
2:2
Draw (X)
Estimated goals: 1.5 — 1.45. The score is a model estimate, not an exact promise.
What is xG: What Is xG (Expected Goals) in Football? · How the xG.Football Prediction Model Works
Factors supporting this pick
Overall form · points per game: 0.4 : 0.6
Estimated scoring potential: 1.5 : 1.45
Average goal difference: -1.2 : -1.2
Head to head · points: 1 : 1
Factors against
Home / away form · points: 0.8 : 1.2
Prediction
Prediction: Corners — Burnley — Derby
In Burnley’s five home matches, the hosts have averaged 4.8 corners, while their opponents have averaged 6.0, giving an average total of 10.8; the 8.5 line was exceeded in four of the five matches. In Derby’s five away matches, the averages are 4.4 corners for the team and 6.8 for their opponents, with an average total of 11.2 and the line being surpassed in four of five matches. Based on these figures, the statistical prediction is over 8.5 corners: the model rating is 3 out of 5; the calculated probability is not provided.
70%
Estimated probability
Select a sample to see its matches
Average per match
8.8
Team 5
Opponent 3.8
Above the line in 2 of 5 matches
Average per match
10.8
Team 4.8
Opponent 6
Above the line in 4 of 5 matches
Average per match
12.6
Team 6.8
Opponent 5.8
Above the line in 5 of 5 matches
Average per match
11.2
Team 4.4
Opponent 6.8
Above the line in 4 of 5 matches
Prediction
Prediction: Shots on target — Burnley — Derby
In Burnley’s home matches, the team average 5.0 shots on target, while their opponents average 3.8, giving an average total of 8.8; the 7.5 line was exceeded in 3 of 5 matches, and this threshold was also surpassed in each of their three most recent home matches chronologically. In Derby’s away matches, the averages are 4.0 shots on target for the team and 6.4 for their opponents, with an average total of 10.4, and the line was surpassed in 4 of 5 cases. The model has selected over 7.5 with a rating of 4\/5; the calculated probability is not provided. The recommendation is supported most strongly by Derby’s away sample — 4 hits out of 5 — while Burnley’s home statistics produced 3 out of 5, so this does not guarantee that the bet will land.
68%
Estimated probability
Select a sample to see its matches
Average per match
8.4
Team 3.8
Opponent 4.6
Above the line in 3 of 5 matches
Average per match
8.8
Team 5
Opponent 3.8
Above the line in 3 of 5 matches
Average per match
8.8
Team 2.4
Opponent 6.4
Above the line in 3 of 5 matches
Average per match
10.4
Team 4
Opponent 6.4
Above the line in 4 of 5 matches
Prediction
Prediction: Yellow cards — Burnley — Derby
In Burnley’s home matches, the average total is 3.6 yellow cards: the hosts receive an average of 1.8 and their opponents 2.0, while the 3.5 line was exceeded in 3 of 5 matches; there is no consistent run of consistently high or low totals. In Derby’s away matches, the averages are 2.8 cards for the team and 1.4 for their opponents, with a total average of 3.4, and the line was surpassed in 2 of 5 cases. The model has selected over 3.5 with a rating of 3\/5; the calculated probability is not provided. The prediction is supported most strongly by Burnley’s overall form and home matches — 3 hits out of 5 in each — while Derby’s away sample produced 2 out of 5, so the rating does not guarantee that the bet will land.
54%
Estimated probability
Select a sample to see its matches
Average per match
4.4
Team 2.4
Opponent 2
Above the line in 3 of 5 matches
Average per match
3.6
Team 1.8
Opponent 1.8
Above the line in 3 of 5 matches
Average per match
3.6
Team 1.6
Opponent 2
Above the line in 3 of 5 matches
Average per match
3.4
Team 2.6
Opponent 0.8
Above the line in 2 of 5 matches
How to read this prediction: How the xG.Football Prediction Model Works · Both Teams to Score (BTTS): How the Market Works and How to Predict It · Over/Under 2.5 Goals: How to Calculate It and When It Lands · Football Prediction & Betting Glossary
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Bookmaker odds
Saved odds: Burnley — Derby
How to read odds: Odds and Probability: How to Convert Them and Find the Bookmaker Margin
Match result (1X2)
Totals
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
Yes · 0%
No · 0%
Match result (1X2)
Burnley · 0%
Draw · 0%
Derby · 0%
Totals
Over +2.5 · 0%
Under +2.5 · 0%
Match information
Match information: Burnley — Derby
Kick-off19 September 2026, 17:00
CompetitionChampionship
Season2026/27
Round / stageRegular Season - 8
VenueTurf Moor
CityBurnley
RefereeSteve Martin
FAQ
Frequently asked questions: Burnley — Derby
01 What time does Burnley vs Derby kick off?
Burnley vs Derby (Championship) kicks off 19 September 2026, 17:00.
02 Where is Burnley vs Derby being played?
The match is played at Turf Moor (Burnley).
03 Who is the referee for Burnley vs Derby?
The referee for Burnley vs Derby is Steve Martin.
04 What are the over/under odds for Burnley vs Derby?
For Burnley vs Derby, bookmakers offer 1.85 on over 2.5 goals and 1.98 on under 2.5 goals.
05 What are the match winner odds for Burnley vs Derby?
Bookmaker odds for Burnley vs Derby: Burnley — 1.81, Draw — 3.73, Derby — 4.30.
06 What is the recent form of Burnley and Derby?
Burnley: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in the last 5 matches, goals 5–11. Derby: 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses in the last 5 matches, goals 3–9.
07 How many times have Burnley and Derby played each other?
Our database has 2 previous head-to-head meetings for these teams.
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