NPFL
2026/27 · Regular Season - 5
Match analysis preview
On September 23, 2026, the Kwara Sports Stadium will host the NPFL Regular Season Matchday 5 fixture between Kwara United and Nasarawa United. In their recent outings, the teams have shown varying degrees of stability in attack and defense, which shapes the current balance of power ahead of this head-to-head clash.
| # | Team | P | Scored | Conceded | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 |
|
4 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 |
|
4 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
Pre-match statistics
Form over the last five matches: Kwara United — Nasarawa United
1 wins, 1 draws, 3 losses in the last 5 matches
In home matches, Kwara United have produced decent results, claiming three wins and suffering two defeats in their last five outings on home turf. Over this stretch, the club scored 8 goals and conceded 4, averaging 1.6 goals per game. Notable home victories include a 4-0 thrashing of Lobi Stars and a 3-1 win against Rivers United. Their overall form across all competitions over the last five games looks more modest: one win, two draws, and two defeats, with 4 goals scored and 4 conceded.
3 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses in the last 5 matches
In home matches, Kwara United have produced decent results, claiming three wins and suffering two defeats in their last five outings on home turf. Over this stretch, the club scored 8 goals and conceded 4, averaging 1.6 goals per game. Notable home victories include a 4-0 thrashing of Lobi Stars and a 3-1 win against Rivers United. Their overall form across all competitions over the last five games looks more modest: one win, two draws, and two defeats, with 4 goals scored and 4 conceded.
3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses in the last 5 matches
On the road, the team has delivered subdued results in the tournament, recording a 2-1 win over Lobi Stars, two 1-1 draws against Bendel Insurance and Kano Pillars, and two defeats against Rivers United (1-2) and Kwara United (0-1). In their last five away matches, the visitors scored 5 goals and conceded 6, averaging one goal per game. Their overall form appears more productive: in their last five fixtures across all competitions, the team secured three wins, one draw, and one defeat, netting a total of 8 goals while conceding 6.
1 wins, 1 draws, 3 losses in the last 5 matches
On the road, the team has delivered subdued results in the tournament, recording a 2-1 win over Lobi Stars, two 1-1 draws against Bendel Insurance and Kano Pillars, and two defeats against Rivers United (1-2) and Kwara United (0-1). In their last five away matches, the visitors scored 5 goals and conceded 6, averaging one goal per game. Their overall form appears more productive: in their last five fixtures across all competitions, the team secured three wins, one draw, and one defeat, netting a total of 8 goals while conceding 6.
Pre-match statistics
Head-to-head: Kwara United and Nasarawa United
In their last four league encounters, the advantage lies with the opponents, who claimed three victories by the exact same scoreline of 1-0. The visitors' only success dates back to February 2023, when they won 2-0 away from home. Notably, three out of the four matches between these sides saw a minimal total with the home side winning by a single-goal margin.
Prediction
Kwara United vs Nasarawa United prediction
There is currently no sufficiently reliable statistical signal to make a prediction in this section.
Kwara United — Nasarawa United
2:1
Home win (1)
Estimated goals: 1.55 — 1.2. The score is a model estimate, not an exact promise.
What is xG: What Is xG (Expected Goals) in Football? · How the xG.Football Prediction Model Works
51.4%
Estimated probability
Factors supporting this pick
Home / away form · points: 2 : 0.8
Estimated scoring potential: 1.55 : 1.2
Head to head · points: 2.25 : 0.75
Factors against
Overall form · points per game: 0.8 : 1.8
Average goal difference: -0.4 : 0
How to read this prediction: How the xG.Football Prediction Model Works · Both Teams to Score (BTTS): How the Market Works and How to Predict It · Over/Under 2.5 Goals: How to Calculate It and When It Lands · Football Prediction & Betting Glossary
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Bookmaker odds
Saved odds: Kwara United — Nasarawa United
How to read odds: Odds and Probability: How to Convert Them and Find the Bookmaker Margin
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Match information
Match information: Kwara United — Nasarawa United
Kick-off23 September 2026, 18:00
CompetitionNPFL
Season2026/27
Round / stageRegular Season - 5
VenueKwara Sports Stadium
CityIlorin
Statistics will appear after a data source is connected.
FAQ
Frequently asked questions: Kwara United — Nasarawa United
01 What time does Kwara United vs Nasarawa United kick off?
Kwara United vs Nasarawa United (NPFL) kicks off 23 September 2026, 18:00.
02 Where is Kwara United vs Nasarawa United being played?
The match is played at Kwara Sports Stadium (Ilorin).
03 Who will win Kwara United vs Nasarawa United?
According to our statistical model, Kwara United is the most likely winner of Kwara United vs Nasarawa United, with a probability of 51.4%.
04 What is the prediction for Kwara United vs Nasarawa United?
The statistical model favours Home win (1), with an estimated probability of 51.4%.
05 What is the recent form of Kwara United and Nasarawa United?
Kwara United: 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses in the last 5 matches, goals 5–7. Nasarawa United: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in the last 5 matches, goals 8–8.
06 How many times have Kwara United and Nasarawa United played each other?
Our database has 4 previous head-to-head meetings for these teams.
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