Primeira Liga
2026/27 · Regular Season - 7
Match analysis preview
On September 19, 2026, Nacional will face Famalicao at Estádio da Madeira in the 7th round of the Primeira Liga. In their last five matches, Nacional have recorded one win and four defeats, while Famalicao have drawn three times and lost twice. Neither team has recorded more than one win in this sample, so the statistical context suggests a fairly even contest in terms of results.
| # | Team | P | Scored | Conceded | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 |
|
7 | 7 | 15 | 4 |
| 12 |
|
7 | 9 | 7 | 7 |
Squad news
Preliminary squads: Nacional — Famalicao
Squads may change before kickoff.
Pre-match statistics
Form over the last five matches: Nacional — Famalicao
1 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses in the last 5 matches
Nacional's home form across a sample of five matches includes two wins and three defeats. The team scored eight goals and conceded the same number, averaging 1,6 goals per game at both ends. Their last two home matches ended in defeats to Alverca, 1:3, and Estrela, 2:3, while Nacional kept clean sheets in their two wins over Estoril and Vitória SC.
In their overall form across the last five matches, Nacional have recorded one win and four defeats, scoring five and conceding nine goals — an average of 1,0 and 1,8 goals respectively. After beating Estoril, the team have lost four matches in a row; Nacional have scored in three of the five games in the sample.
2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses in the last 5 matches
Nacional's home form across a sample of five matches includes two wins and three defeats. The team scored eight goals and conceded the same number, averaging 1,6 goals per game at both ends. Their last two home matches ended in defeats to Alverca, 1:3, and Estrela, 2:3, while Nacional kept clean sheets in their two wins over Estoril and Vitória SC.
In their overall form across the last five matches, Nacional have recorded one win and four defeats, scoring five and conceding nine goals — an average of 1,0 and 1,8 goals respectively. After beating Estoril, the team have lost four matches in a row; Nacional have scored in three of the five games in the sample.
0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses in the last 5 matches
In their last five away matches, Famalicao have recorded one win, three draws and one defeat. The visitors scored four goals and conceded four, averaging 0,8 goals per game at both ends; the team scored in three of those five matches. Their overall form is less consistent: in their last five matches, Famalicao have won once, drawn twice and lost twice, scoring four and conceding six goals. However, the team are unbeaten in their last three overall matches — all three ended in draws.
1 wins, 3 draws, 1 losses in the last 5 matches
In their last five away matches, Famalicao have recorded one win, three draws and one defeat. The visitors scored four goals and conceded four, averaging 0,8 goals per game at both ends; the team scored in three of those five matches. Their overall form is less consistent: in their last five matches, Famalicao have won once, drawn twice and lost twice, scoring four and conceding six goals. However, the team are unbeaten in their last three overall matches — all three ended in draws.
Pre-match statistics
Head-to-head: Nacional and Famalicao
In the last two head-to-head meetings, Nacional lost to Famalicao twice by the same scoreline, 0:1. The hosts failed to score in either game, so the two-match sample points to an advantage for Famalicao in these meetings.
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21.03.2026 |
|
|
1:0 |
| 01.11.2025 |
|
|
0:1 |
| 01.03.2025 |
|
|
2:1 |
| 29.09.2024 |
|
|
0:0 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01.11.2025 |
|
|
0:1 |
| 01.03.2025 |
|
|
2:1 |
Match timeline
Match events: Nacional — Famalicao
0 - 1
Georgios Koutsias
Assist: Marcos Vinicios Lopes Moura
0 - 2
Marcos Vinicios Lopes Moura
Víctor Rofino Gordo
Foul
0 - 3
Georgios Koutsias
Assist: Mathias De Amorim
Williams Kokolo
Replaced: Jose Gomes
Stavros Gavriel
Replaced: Song Min-kyu
Ivanildo Fernandes
Replaced: José Vitor Lima Cardoso
Pablo Ruan
Replaced: Matchoi Djaló
Pedro Bondo Francisco
Foul
0 - 4
Marcos Vinicios Lopes Moura
Assist: Mathias De Amorim
Williams Kokolo
Foul
Wesley
Replaced: Daniel de la Cruz
Leny Remo Meyer
Replaced: Pedro Bondo Francisco
Pedro Santos
Replaced: Gil Dias
Matheus dos Santos Dias
Argument
Finn van Breemen
Foul
Matheus dos Santos Dias
Óscar Aranda Subiela
Replaced: Marcos Vinicios Lopes Moura
Umar Abubakar
Replaced: Georgios Koutsias
Gustavo Garcia
Replaced: Rodrigo Pinheiro
Nacional
Metric
Famalicao
Goals
4
12
Shots
12
3
Shots on target
7
6
Shots off target
3
3
Blocked shots
2
7
Shots inside the box
7
5
Shots outside the box
5
7
Corners
3
11
Fouls
1
Offsides
1
55 %
Ball possession, %
45 %
3
Goalkeeper saves
3
487
Total passes
403
433
Accurate passes
345
1
Yellow cards
3
1
Red cards
Goals
3
12
Shots
12
3
Shots on target
7
6
Shots off target
3
3
Blocked shots
2
7
Shots inside the box
7
5
Shots outside the box
5
7
Corners
3
11
Fouls
1
Offsides
1
55 %
Ball possession, %
45 %
3
Goalkeeper saves
3
487
Total passes
403
433
Accurate passes
345
1
Yellow cards
3
1
Red cards
Goals
1
Shots
Shots on target
Shots off target
Blocked shots
Shots inside the box
Shots outside the box
Corners
Fouls
Offsides
Goalkeeper saves
Total passes
Accurate passes
Yellow cards
Red cards
Player statistics
Player ratings: Nacional — Famalicao
15
C. Labidi
M · 90 min
7.0
20
Matchoi Djaló
M · 61 min
6.4
99
Pablo Ruan
F · 29 min
6.4
9
A. Obando
F · 90 min
6.3
12
Song Min-Kyu
M · 45 min
6.2
38
Zé Vitor
D · 45 min
6.1
33
Francisco Gonçalves
D · 90 min
6.1
14
Ivanildo Fernandes
D · 45 min
6.0
52
Wesley Gasolina
D · 18 min
6.0
8
Miguel Baeza
M · 90 min
5.9
5
José Gomes
D · 45 min
5.9
6
Matheus Dias
M · 77 min
5.8
11
S. Gavriel
M · 45 min
5.7
2
Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la Cruz
D · 72 min
5.6
1
Renato Bellucci
G · 90 min
5.5
21
W. Kokolo
D · 45 min
5.2
31
D. Dongmo
M · 0 min
0.0
7
M. Jensen
M · 0 min
0.0
13
João Gonçalves
G · 0 min
0.0
23
Mateus Iseppe
M · 0 min
0.0
50
Kevyn
G · 0 min
0.0
10
Daniel Júnior
M · 0 min
0.0
7
Sorriso
M · 80 min · goals: 2 · assists: 1
9.8
70
G. Koutsias
F · 80 min · goals: 2
9.3
14
Mathias De Amorim
M · 90 min · assists: 2
8.6
4
F. van Breemen
D · 90 min
7.3
2
Gustavo Garcia
D · 7 min
7.2
5
L. Meyer
D · 17 min
7.1
15
Víctor Rofino
D · 90 min
7.0
17
Rodrigo Pinheiro
D · 83 min
7.0
8
Marcos Peña
M · 90 min
6.9
21
Tamás Szücs
M · 90 min
6.8
11
Óscar Aranda
F · 10 min
6.8
25
L. Carević
G · 90 min
6.7
23
Gil Dias
M · 73 min
6.6
10
Pedro Santos
F · 17 min
6.6
9
U. Abubakar
F · 10 min
6.5
28
Pedro Francisco
D · 73 min
6.3
24
Mathis Jangeal
M · 0 min
0.0
19
Paulo Moreira
M · 0 min
0.0
3
L. Realpe
D · 0 min
0.0
33
P. Salas
F · 0 min
0.0
1
I. Zlobin
G · 0 min
0.0
22
Gabriel
G · 0 min
0.0
36
M. Mattara
D · 0 min
0.0
Prediction
Nacional vs Famalicao prediction
A draw is the most likely outcome: the teams' overall form is rated equally at 0,6, while their home and away figures are also identical at 1,2. Expected scoring is close, with Nacional on 1,15 goals compared with 1,25 for Famalicao, so the match could be evenly contested, with the visitors holding a slight edge in this metric.
Nacional — Famalicao
1:1
Draw (X)
Estimated goals: 1.15 — 1.25. The score is a model estimate, not an exact promise.
What is xG: What Is xG (Expected Goals) in Football? · How the xG.Football Prediction Model Works
25.9%
Estimated probability
Factors supporting this pick
Overall form · points per game: 0.6 : 0.6
Home / away form · points: 1.2 : 1.2
Estimated scoring potential: 1.15 : 1.25
Factors against
Average goal difference: -0.8 : -0.4
Head to head · points: 1 : 1.75
Prediction
Prediction: Corners — Nacional — Famalicao
In Nacional's five home matches, they average 4,6 corners and allow opponents 3,8, giving a total average of 8,4; the 8,5 line was exceeded in two of the five matches. Famalicao's away matches show a stronger trend: the team average 6,8 corners compared with 5,0 for their opponents, for a total of 11,8, and the line has been surpassed in all five matches; taking into account two successful head-to-head results from two, the model's prediction for Over 8,5 is rated at 3/5 points, while the calculated probability is not provided.
62%
Estimated probability
Select a sample to see its matches
Average per match
7.8
Team 3.2
Opponent 4.6
Above the line in 2 of 5 matches
Average per match
8.4
Team 4.6
Opponent 3.8
Above the line in 2 of 5 matches
Average per match
8.6
Team 5.8
Opponent 2.8
Above the line in 3 of 5 matches
Average per match
11.8
Team 6.8
Opponent 5
Above the line in 5 of 5 matches
Prediction
Prediction: Shots on target — Nacional — Famalicao
There is currently no sufficiently reliable statistical signal for a prediction in this section.
62%
Estimated probability
Select a sample to see its matches
Average per match
8.4
Team 2.6
Opponent 5.8
Above the line in 4 of 5 matches
Average per match
8.6
Team 4
Opponent 4.6
Above the line in 4 of 5 matches
Average per match
6
Team 2.8
Opponent 3.2
Above the line in 2 of 5 matches
Average per match
6.4
Team 4
Opponent 2.4
Above the line in 2 of 5 matches
Prediction
Prediction: Yellow cards — Nacional — Famalicao
In Nacional's five home matches, the hosts average 2,4 yellow cards and their opponents 2,6, giving a total average of 5,0; the 3,5 line was exceeded in three matches, compared with just one of five in the team's overall form. In Famalicao's five away matches, the averages are 2,0 cards for the team and 1,6 for their opponents, with a total of 3,6, and the line was surpassed in three matches; in the visitors' overall form, it was surpassed in four of five. The model recommends Over 3,5 with a rating of 4/5 points, while the calculated probability is not provided; the prediction is supported most strongly by Famalicao's overall form, Nacional's home matches and the head-to-head meetings, where the line was surpassed in two of two matches.
65%
Estimated probability
Select a sample to see its matches
Average per match
3.6
Team 1.2
Opponent 2.4
Above the line in 1 of 5 matches
Average per match
5
Team 2.4
Opponent 2.6
Above the line in 3 of 5 matches
Average per match
4.8
Team 2
Opponent 2.8
Above the line in 4 of 5 matches
Average per match
3.6
Team 2
Opponent 1.6
Above the line in 3 of 5 matches
How to read this prediction: How the xG.Football Prediction Model Works · Both Teams to Score (BTTS): How the Market Works and How to Predict It · Over/Under 2.5 Goals: How to Calculate It and When It Lands · Football Prediction & Betting Glossary
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Bookmaker odds
Saved odds: Nacional — Famalicao
How to read odds: Odds and Probability: How to Convert Them and Find the Bookmaker Margin
Match result (1X2)
Totals
Both teams to score
Corners: total
Both teams to score
Yes · 0%
No · 0%
Match result (1X2)
Nacional · 0%
Draw · 0%
Famalicao · 0%
Totals
Over +2.5 · 0%
Under +2.5 · 0%
Corners: total
Over +9.5 · 0%
Under +9.5 · 0%
Match information
Match information: Nacional — Famalicao
Kick-off19 September 2026, 17:30
CompetitionPrimeira Liga
Season2026/27
Round / stageRegular Season - 7
VenueEstádio da Madeira
CityFunchal
RefereeGustavo Fernandes Correia
FAQ
Frequently asked questions: Nacional — Famalicao
01 What time does Nacional vs Famalicao kick off?
Nacional vs Famalicao (Primeira Liga) kicks off 19 September 2026, 17:30.
02 Where is Nacional vs Famalicao being played?
The match is played at Estádio da Madeira (Funchal).
03 Who is the referee for Nacional vs Famalicao?
The referee for Nacional vs Famalicao is Gustavo Fernandes Correia.
04 Who will win Nacional vs Famalicao?
According to our statistical model, a draw is the most likely result of Nacional vs Famalicao, with a probability of 25.9%.
05 What is the prediction for Nacional vs Famalicao?
The statistical model favours Draw (X), with an estimated probability of 25.9%.
06 What are the over/under odds for Nacional vs Famalicao?
For Nacional vs Famalicao, bookmakers offer 2.13 on over 2.5 goals and 1.73 on under 2.5 goals.
07 What are the match winner odds for Nacional vs Famalicao?
Bookmaker odds for Nacional vs Famalicao: Nacional — 3.69, Draw — 3.31, Famalicao — 2.09.
08 What is the recent form of Nacional and Famalicao?
Nacional: 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses in the last 5 matches, goals 5–9. Famalicao: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in the last 5 matches, goals 4–6.
09 How many times have Nacional and Famalicao played each other?
Our database has 4 previous head-to-head meetings for these teams.
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