Prediction statistics
How the xG.Football model performs on real data: the full journal of predictions saved before kickoff, and how they turned out.
26
Predictions logged
50%
Accuracy (settled)
62%
Average probability
16
Leagues in sample
Each row is a prediction stored before kick-off and its subsequent settlement.
| Date | Match | Market | Model choice | Odds | Criteria matched | Probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Süper Lig
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 1:0 |
1.93
Pinnacle
|
|
61.45% | 1:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Super Liga
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 2:1 |
1.50
Bet365
|
|
62.22% | 1:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Premier League
|
Handicap | Home handicap (+0.5) · 0:1 |
1.67
Pinnacle
|
|
61.52% | 0:2 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Europa Conference League
|
Handicap | Home handicap (-0.5) · 2:1 |
2.08
Pinnacle
|
|
62.44% | 2:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 1:1 |
4.33
Bet365
|
|
61.42% | 1:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 1:1 |
1.71
Pinnacle
|
|
61.57% | 2:4 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
CAF Champions League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 1:0 |
—
|
|
61.28% | 1:6 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 1:1 |
2.38
Bet365
|
|
62.14% | 4:3 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
League One
|
Handicap | Away handicap (0) · 1:1 |
1.75
Pinnacle
|
|
62.24% | 0:3 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera División
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 1:1 |
1.95
Pinnacle
|
|
62.47% | 3:2 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Eerste Divisie
|
Handicap | Home handicap (+0.5) · 1:1 |
1.93
Pinnacle
|
|
62.03% | 1:2 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga I
|
Handicap | Away handicap (0) · 1:1 |
1.35
Pinnacle
|
|
62.02% | 1:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Superliga
|
Handicap | Away handicap (0) · 1:1 |
1.70
Pinnacle
|
|
60.48% | 1:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Superliga
|
Handicap | Home handicap (+0.5) · 1:1 |
1.72
Pinnacle
|
|
62.45% | 2:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Eerste Divisie
|
Handicap | Home handicap (0) · 1:1 |
1.46
Pinnacle
|
|
62.49% | 1:1 |
Push
Calculated
|
|
|
Eredivisie
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+1) · 1:1 |
1.95
Bet365
|
|
62.3% | 3:2 |
Push
Calculated
|
|
|
La Liga
|
Handicap | Home handicap (-0.5) · 2:1 |
1.45
Pinnacle
|
|
62.44% | 0:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 1:1 |
1.59
Pinnacle
|
|
61.82% | 4:2 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
CAF Champions League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 1:1 |
—
|
|
61.91% | 0:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Europa League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (0) · 1:1 |
1.53
Pinnacle
|
|
62.13% | 1:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Europa Conference League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 1:1 |
1.42
Pinnacle
|
|
62.29% | 1:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Handicap | Home handicap (-0.5) · 2:1 |
8.58
Pinnacle
|
|
62.13% | 0:3 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (0) · 1:1 |
2.28
Pinnacle
|
|
61.82% | 3:2 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Handicap | Home handicap (-1) · 3:1 |
1.37
Pinnacle
|
|
62.46% | 3:4 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Handicap | Home handicap (+0.5) · 2:2 |
1.36
Pinnacle
|
|
61.35% | 1:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
Showing 25 of 26 predictions.