How the streak probability is calculated
The calculator works out the exact probability that a run of L losses in a row appears at least once among the given number of independent bets. It is not a simulation but a recurrence formula, so the result is the same every time.
The bank left is shown for two ways of staking. Flat: each stake is a percentage of the starting bank, and a streak of L losses takes L such stakes. Percentage of the current bank: each stake is worked out from what is left, so the bank shrinks more slowly and never reaches zero.
What it is for
- Choosing a stake size at which a streak likely over your number of bets does not take most of the bank.
- Telling ordinary variance from a problem with your approach: a streak of 6–7 losses in a hundred bets at 50% is a normal event.
- Seeing why progressions such as Martingale are dangerous: a streak just one or two losses longer than the bank can take is enough to ruin them.
Frequently asked questions
What is the probability of 5 losses in a row?
It depends on the number of bets and the win chance. At a probability of 50%, over 100 bets a streak of five losses in a row happens in about 81% of cases, and a streak of six in about 55%.
What losing streak is normal?
With bets at a probability of about 50%, the longest streak in 100 bets averages about six losses in a row. A streak of that length is ordinary variance, not a sign of a mistake.
How do I survive a losing streak?
Stake a small share of the bank: with a flat stake of 2%, even a streak of ten losses takes a fifth of the bank. And do not raise the stake after losses.
Why is a percentage of the current bank safer than flat staking?
Because the stake shrinks along with the bank. After a losing streak the next stake is smaller, and the bank shrinks more slowly than with a fixed amount.
More on the blog
The xG.Football model calculates result, totals and both-teams-to-score probabilities for the day's matches — handy to compare with the odds.
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