Prediction statistics
How the xG.Football model performs on real data: the full journal of predictions saved before kickoff, and how they turned out.
20
Predictions logged
100%
Accuracy (settled)
70.6%
Average probability
9
Leagues in sample
Each row is a prediction stored before kick-off and its subsequent settlement.
| Date | Match | Market | Model choice | Odds | Criteria matched | Probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Serie A
|
Shots on target | Under 9.5 |
1.67
Bet365
|
|
63.49% | 8 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
League One
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
60.82% | 9 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Nations League
|
Shots on target | Under 10.5 |
1.80
Bet365
|
|
80.03% | 8 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Major League Soccer
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
68.26% | 18 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Nations League
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
69.92% | 13 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Major League Soccer
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
67.85% | 13 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Nations League
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
67.85% | 10 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Nations League
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
69.78% | 9 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Friendlies
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
67.85% | 8 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Nations League
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
67.85% | 13 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Major League Soccer
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
67.85% | 9 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Segunda División
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
67.85% | 10 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Segunda División
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
67.85% | 8 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Nations League
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
67.85% | 10 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga I
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
62.18% | 10 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Eredivisie
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
82.04% | 11 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Eredivisie
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
82.04% | 9 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Eredivisie
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
82.04% | 14 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Eredivisie
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
77.41% | 9 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
— | 14 |
Correct
Calculated
|
Showing 20 of 20 predictions.