Prediction statistics
How the xG.Football model performs on real data: the full journal of predictions saved before kickoff, and how they turned out.
48
Predictions logged
71%
Accuracy (settled)
69%
Average probability
16
Leagues in sample
Each row is a prediction stored before kick-off and its subsequent settlement.
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| Date | Match | Market | Model choice | Odds | Criteria matched | Probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Yellow cards | Under 3.5 |
1.67
1xBet
|
|
61.69% | 6 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Yellow cards | Over 3 |
1.75
Betano
|
|
62.45% | 2 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera División
|
Yellow cards | Under 5.5 |
1.70
Betano
|
|
62.99% | 5 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera División
|
Yellow cards | Under 6.5 |
1.75
Betano
|
|
70.64% | 3 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Yellow cards | Under 4.5 |
1.67
1xBet
|
|
68.34% | 3 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Championship
|
Yellow cards | Over 2.5 |
1.65
Betano
|
|
68.01% | 2 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Ligue 1
|
Yellow cards | Under 4.5 |
1.62
1xBet
|
|
62.65% | 2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Major League Soccer
|
Yellow cards | Under 4.5 |
1.62
Betano
|
|
63.08% | 7 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Major League Soccer
|
Yellow cards | Under 4.5 |
1.67
Betano
|
|
64.76% | 2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera División
|
Yellow cards | Under 5.5 |
1.62
Betano
|
|
72.82% | 1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Jupiler Pro League
|
Yellow cards | Under 4.5 |
1.75
Betano
|
|
66.04% | 4 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera División
|
Yellow cards | Under 5.5 |
1.80
Betano
|
|
65.64% | 3 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primeira Liga
|
Yellow cards | Over 3.5 |
1.67
Betano
|
|
65.58% | 1 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie B
|
Yellow cards | Under 5.5 |
1.75
Betano
|
|
68.64% | 6 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Ligue 1
|
Yellow cards | Under 5.5 |
1.62
1xBet
|
|
65.93% | 1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Ligue 1
|
Yellow cards | Under 4 |
1.80
Betano
|
|
63.87% | 7 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Yellow cards | Under 7.5 |
1.73
Bet365
|
|
78.7% | 6 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera División
|
Yellow cards | Under 5.5 |
1.98
Betano
|
|
60.84% | 3 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Yellow cards | Under 5.5 |
1.83
Bet365
|
|
61.9% | 5 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Yellow cards | Under 5.5 |
1.67
Bet365
|
|
65.73% | 0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Yellow cards | Under 6.5 |
1.73
Bet365
|
|
62.39% | 7 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie B
|
Yellow cards | Under 4.5 |
1.62
Bet365
|
|
66.88% | 2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Yellow cards | Under 4.5 |
1.62
Bet365
|
|
66.26% | 2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga MX
|
Yellow cards | Under 4.5 |
1.67
Bet365
|
|
58.71% | 6 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga MX
|
Yellow cards | Under 5.5 |
1.67
Bet365
|
|
64.14% | 4 |
Correct
Calculated
|
Showing 25 of 48 predictions.