Prediction statistics
How the xG.Football model performs on real data: the full journal of predictions saved before kickoff, and how they turned out.
46
Predictions logged
0%
Accuracy (settled)
66.5%
Average probability
27
Leagues in sample
Each row is a prediction stored before kick-off and its subsequent settlement.
| Date | Match | Market | Model choice | Odds | Criteria matched | Probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Yellow cards | Over 3 |
1.75
Betano
|
|
62.45% | 2 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Championship
|
Yellow cards | Over 2.5 |
1.65
Betano
|
|
68.01% | 2 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga Profesional Argentina
|
Shots on target | Under 9.5 |
1.67
Bet365
|
|
64.56% | 14 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Major League Soccer
|
Yellow cards | Under 4.5 |
1.62
Betano
|
|
63.08% | 7 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Primeira Liga
|
Yellow cards | Over 3.5 |
1.67
Betano
|
|
65.58% | 1 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie B
|
Yellow cards | Under 5.5 |
1.75
Betano
|
|
68.64% | 6 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Ligue 1
|
Yellow cards | Under 4 |
1.80
Betano
|
|
63.87% | 7 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Yellow cards | Under 6.5 |
1.73
Bet365
|
|
62.39% | 7 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga MX
|
Yellow cards | Under 4.5 |
1.67
Bet365
|
|
58.71% | 6 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Super Liga
|
Corners | Under 9 |
1.85
Bet365
|
|
60.94% | 16 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Ekstraklasa
|
Corners | Under 10 |
1.82
Bet365
|
|
59.49% | 13 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Super Liga
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 2:1 |
1.50
Bet365
|
|
62.22% | 1:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Premier League
|
Handicap | Home handicap (+0.5) · 0:1 |
1.67
Pinnacle
|
|
61.52% | 0:2 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Europa Conference League
|
Corners | Over 10 |
1.78
Bet365
|
|
63.1% | 5 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 1:1 |
4.33
Bet365
|
|
61.42% | 1:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 1:1 |
2.38
Bet365
|
|
62.14% | 4:3 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera División
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 1:1 |
1.95
Pinnacle
|
|
62.47% | 3:2 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Eerste Divisie
|
Handicap | Home handicap (+0.5) · 1:1 |
1.93
Pinnacle
|
|
62.03% | 1:2 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Super Liga
|
Corners | Under 10.5 |
1.80
Bet365
|
|
65.52% | 11 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Premier League
|
Corners | Under 9 |
1.80
Pinnacle
|
|
62.22% | 10 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
La Liga
|
Handicap | Home handicap (-0.5) · 2:1 |
1.45
Pinnacle
|
|
62.44% | 0:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 1:1 |
1.59
Pinnacle
|
|
61.82% | 4:2 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Handicap | Home handicap (-0.5) · 2:1 |
8.58
Pinnacle
|
|
62.13% | 0:3 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (0) · 1:1 |
2.28
Pinnacle
|
|
61.82% | 3:2 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
FKF Premier League
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.95
Bet365
|
|
64.12% | 0:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
Showing 25 of 46 predictions.