Prediction statistics
How the xG.Football model performs on real data: the full journal of predictions saved before kickoff, and how they turned out.
752
Predictions logged
57%
Accuracy (settled)
55.5%
Average probability
51
Leagues in sample
Each row is a prediction stored before kick-off and its subsequent settlement.
| Date | Match | Market | Model choice | Odds | Criteria matched | Probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Primera División
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+1.5) · 1:0 |
1.78
Pinnacle
|
|
59.38% | 2:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 1:1 |
1.68
Bet365
|
|
55.25% | 0:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Division Profesional - Clausura
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+1.5) · 2:1 |
1.85
Pinnacle
|
|
58.78% | 4:1 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 0:1 |
1.68
Bet365
|
|
60.97% | 1:3 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Division Profesional - Clausura
|
Handicap | Away handicap (0) · 0:1 |
1.71
Pinnacle
|
|
51.04% | 0:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 1:2 |
2.85
Bet365
|
|
58.29% | 4:1 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (-0.5) · 1:2 |
1.50
Bet365
|
|
47.71% | 2:3 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+1) · 1:1 |
1.67
1xBet
|
|
43.84% | 2:1 |
Push
Calculated
|
|
|
Championship
|
Handicap | Away handicap (0) · 1:2 |
1.51
Pinnacle
|
|
56.2% | 3:3 |
Push
Calculated
|
|
|
Czech Liga
|
Handicap | Away handicap (0) · 1:1 |
1.80
Bet365
|
|
57.65% | 1:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Europa League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (-0.5) · 0:1 |
3.10
Bet365
|
|
51.21% | 0:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera División
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 1:1 |
2.02
Bet365
|
|
44.73% | 2:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (-0.5) · 1:2 |
1.58
Bet365
|
|
46.62% | 0:6 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (-0.5) · 1:2 |
1.98
Bet365
|
|
61.58% | 0:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+1) · 1:1 |
1.56
1xBet
|
|
44.49% | 0:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 1:2 |
1.60
Bet365
|
|
56.82% | 3:2 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Championship
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 1:2 |
1.55
Betano
|
|
56.98% | 1:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Championship
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 0:1 |
1.53
Betano
|
|
61.25% | 3:1 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Championship
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 0:1 |
1.85
Betano
|
|
50.1% | 1:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Championship
|
Handicap | Away handicap (0) · 1:2 |
1.56
1xBet
|
|
46.92% | 0:4 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Championship
|
Handicap | Away handicap (0) · 1:2 |
2.14
1xBet
|
|
60.45% | 1:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (-0.5) · 0:1 |
1.98
Bet365
|
|
21.67% | 0:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Premier League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 1:1 |
1.60
Bet365
|
|
50.1% | 2:1 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga Profesional Argentina
|
Handicap | Away handicap (0) · 0:1 |
1.76
1xBet
|
|
46.26% | 1:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera División
|
Handicap | Away handicap (0) · 0:1 |
1.65
Pinnacle
|
|
61.99% | 0:0 |
Push
Calculated
|
Showing 25 of 752 predictions.