Prediction statistics
How the xG.Football model performs on real data: the full journal of predictions saved before kickoff, and how they turned out.
383
Predictions logged
100%
Accuracy (settled)
55.6%
Average probability
50
Leagues in sample
Each row is a prediction stored before kick-off and its subsequent settlement.
| Date | Match | Market | Model choice | Odds | Criteria matched | Probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Primera División
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+1.5) · 1:0 |
1.78
Pinnacle
|
|
59.38% | 2:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 1:1 |
1.68
Bet365
|
|
55.25% | 0:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 0:1 |
1.68
Bet365
|
|
60.97% | 1:3 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Division Profesional - Clausura
|
Handicap | Away handicap (0) · 0:1 |
1.71
Pinnacle
|
|
51.04% | 0:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (-0.5) · 1:2 |
1.50
Bet365
|
|
47.71% | 2:3 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Czech Liga
|
Handicap | Away handicap (0) · 1:1 |
1.80
Bet365
|
|
57.65% | 1:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera División
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 1:1 |
2.02
Bet365
|
|
44.73% | 2:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (-0.5) · 1:2 |
1.58
Bet365
|
|
46.62% | 0:6 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (-0.5) · 1:2 |
1.98
Bet365
|
|
61.58% | 0:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+1) · 1:1 |
1.56
1xBet
|
|
44.49% | 0:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Championship
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 1:2 |
1.55
Betano
|
|
56.98% | 1:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Championship
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 0:1 |
1.85
Betano
|
|
50.1% | 1:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Championship
|
Handicap | Away handicap (0) · 1:2 |
1.56
1xBet
|
|
46.92% | 0:4 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (-0.5) · 0:1 |
1.98
Bet365
|
|
21.67% | 0:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga Profesional Argentina
|
Handicap | Away handicap (0) · 0:1 |
1.76
1xBet
|
|
46.26% | 1:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Premier League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (-0.5) · 0:1 |
1.57
Bet365
|
|
60.49% | 1:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+1.5) · 1:0 |
1.69
1xBet
|
|
59.51% | 0:3 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Ligue 1
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+1.5) · 1:0 |
1.61
Pinnacle
|
|
61.32% | 1:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera División
|
Handicap | Away handicap (0) · 0:1 |
1.72
1xBet
|
|
50.49% | 2:3 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Super League 1
|
Handicap | Away handicap (+0.5) · 1:1 |
1.65
Bet365
|
|
44.72% | 1:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Veikkausliiga
|
Handicap | Away handicap (-0.5) · 1:2 |
1.90
1xBet
|
|
58.03% | 0:4 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga I
|
Handicap | Away handicap (0) · 1:2 |
1.79
Pinnacle
|
|
48.5% | 1:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
FKF Premier League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (0) · 0:1 |
1.88
1xBet
|
|
56.51% | 0:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Premier League
|
Handicap | Away handicap (-0.5) · 0:1 |
1.35
Bet365
|
|
50.08% | 0:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Persha Liga
|
Handicap | Away handicap (0) · 0:1 |
1.68
1xBet
|
|
50.93% | 0:4 |
Correct
Calculated
|
Showing 25 of 383 predictions.