Prediction statistics
How the xG.Football model performs on real data: the full journal of predictions saved before kickoff, and how they turned out.
44
Predictions logged
100%
Accuracy (settled)
27.8%
Average probability
26
Leagues in sample
Each row is a prediction stored before kick-off and its subsequent settlement.
| Date | Match | Market | Model choice | Odds | Criteria matched | Probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Serie A
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.30
Bet365
|
|
28.44% | 1:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
La Liga
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 2:2 |
3.25
Pinnacle
|
|
25.81% | 3:3 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga MX
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.63
Pinnacle
|
|
26.85% | 3:3 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera Nacional
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.35
Pinnacle
|
|
32.8% | 2:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
NPFL
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
2.90
Bet365
|
|
27.43% | 0:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Premier League
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.31
Pinnacle
|
|
28.89% | 2:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Eliteserien
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 2:2 |
3.55
Pinnacle
|
|
27.31% | 1:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Eredivisie
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 2:2 |
3.75
Bet365
|
|
25.52% | 2:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Superettan
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.64
Pinnacle
|
|
26.89% | 1:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Süper Lig
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.35
Pinnacle
|
|
28.89% | 0:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 2:2 |
3.55
Pinnacle
|
|
28.89% | 0:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Major League Soccer
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 2:2 |
3.70
Bet365
|
|
28.89% | 1:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera División
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.50
Bet365
|
|
32.08% | 2:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera División
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 2:2 |
3.50
Bet365
|
|
32.08% | 0:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
League One
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.60
Bet365
|
|
27.13% | 0:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie B
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
2.96
Pinnacle
|
|
28.89% | 1:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Superettan
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.33
Pinnacle
|
|
28.89% | 1:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga Profesional Argentina
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
2.90
Bet365
|
|
27.43% | 2:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
2. Bundesliga
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 2:2 |
3.41
Pinnacle
|
|
28.89% | 0:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Veikkausliiga
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.77
Pinnacle
|
|
27.32% | 0:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Nations League
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.12
Pinnacle
|
|
27.32% | 2:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga Profesional Argentina
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.14
Pinnacle
|
|
29.2% | 1:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Persha Liga
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.20
Bet365
|
|
25.46% | 0:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Premier League
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.40
Bet365
|
|
27.32% | 1:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
NPFL
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
2.75
Bet365
|
|
27.32% | 1:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
Showing 25 of 44 predictions.