Prediction statistics
How the xG.Football model performs on real data: the full journal of predictions saved before kickoff, and how they turned out.
583
Predictions logged
48%
Accuracy (settled)
48.1%
Average probability
62
Leagues in sample
Each row is a prediction stored before kick-off and its subsequent settlement.
| Date | Match | Market | Model choice | Odds | Criteria matched | Probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Ligue 1
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.50
1xBet
|
|
58.57% | 2:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
League One
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
2.31
Pinnacle
|
|
52.3% | 0:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
League One
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.95
Pinnacle
|
|
27.32% | 3:1 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Premier Division
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 2:2 |
3.33
Pinnacle
|
|
27.43% | 1:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Premier Division
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 2:2 |
3.91
Pinnacle
|
|
28.89% | 3:2 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Ligue 1
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.01
Pinnacle
|
|
26.93% | 2:1 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
FKF Premier League
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.95
Bet365
|
|
64.12% | 0:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Ligue 1
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.50
Pinnacle
|
|
58.57% | 1:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Ligue 1
|
Match outcome | Away win (2) · 1:2 |
1.99
Pinnacle
|
|
50.07% | 1:1 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Ligue 1
|
Match outcome | Away win (2) · 1:2 |
3.85
Pinnacle
|
|
56.81% | 0:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Division Profesional - Clausura
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.61
Pinnacle
|
|
55.82% | 1:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga Profesional Argentina
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.07
Pinnacle
|
|
27.43% | 1:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Division Profesional - Clausura
|
Match outcome | Away win (2) · 1:2 |
2.75
Pinnacle
|
|
43.91% | 1:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Primeira Liga
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.29
Pinnacle
|
|
28.19% | 1:4 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.30
Bet365
|
|
28.44% | 1:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga Profesional Argentina
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
2.88
Bet365
|
|
27.43% | 2:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Segunda División
|
Match outcome | Away win (2) · 1:2 |
2.30
Bet365
|
|
40.19% | 1:1 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
La Liga
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 2:2 |
3.25
Pinnacle
|
|
25.81% | 3:3 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.36
Pinnacle
|
|
— | 2:1 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Super Liga
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
2.55
Bet365
|
|
55.82% | 0:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Superliga
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 2:2 |
4.42
Pinnacle
|
|
27.51% | 3:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Allsvenskan
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.78
Pinnacle
|
|
55.78% | 1:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Allsvenskan
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.32
Pinnacle
|
|
55.78% | 4:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Segunda División
|
Match outcome | Away win (2) · 1:2 |
3.30
Bet365
|
|
36.86% | 3:1 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.65
Pinnacle
|
|
65.51% | 3:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
Showing 25 of 583 predictions.