Prediction statistics
How the xG.Football model performs on real data: the full journal of predictions saved before kickoff, and how they turned out.
282
Predictions logged
100%
Accuracy (settled)
51.2%
Average probability
57
Leagues in sample
Each row is a prediction stored before kick-off and its subsequent settlement.
| Date | Match | Market | Model choice | Odds | Criteria matched | Probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Ligue 1
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.50
1xBet
|
|
58.57% | 2:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Ligue 1
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.50
Pinnacle
|
|
58.57% | 1:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Ligue 1
|
Match outcome | Away win (2) · 1:2 |
3.85
Pinnacle
|
|
56.81% | 0:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Division Profesional - Clausura
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.61
Pinnacle
|
|
55.82% | 1:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.30
Bet365
|
|
28.44% | 1:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
La Liga
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 2:2 |
3.25
Pinnacle
|
|
25.81% | 3:3 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Allsvenskan
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.78
Pinnacle
|
|
55.78% | 1:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Allsvenskan
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.32
Pinnacle
|
|
55.78% | 4:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.65
Pinnacle
|
|
65.51% | 3:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Veikkausliiga
|
Match outcome | Away win (2) · 1:2 |
1.70
Pinnacle
|
|
52.72% | 3:4 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Ligue 1
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
2.61
Pinnacle
|
|
58.57% | 2:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Segunda División
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.80
Bet365
|
|
50.61% | 5:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Persha Liga
|
Match outcome | Away win (2) · 1:2 |
—
|
|
40.19% | 2:4 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Premier League
|
Match outcome | Away win (2) · 1:2 |
2.56
Pinnacle
|
|
54.3% | 1:3 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga MX
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.63
Pinnacle
|
|
26.85% | 3:3 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Major League Soccer
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.55
Bet365
|
|
57.62% | 6:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga Profesional Argentina
|
Match outcome | Away win (2) · 1:2 |
3.25
Bet365
|
|
43.91% | 0:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera División
|
Match outcome | Away win (2) · 1:2 |
1.61
Pinnacle
|
|
43.91% | 0:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera División
|
Match outcome | Away win (2) · 2:3 |
3.40
Bet365
|
|
42.23% | 1:3 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.36
Bet365
|
|
57.21% | 1:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.50
Bet365
|
|
64.12% | 4:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera Nacional
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.35
Pinnacle
|
|
32.8% | 2:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera Nacional
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.73
Pinnacle
|
|
51.9% | 2:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera Nacional
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 1:0 |
1.60
Pinnacle
|
|
47.08% | 2:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Ekstraklasa
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 3:2 |
1.99
Pinnacle
|
|
64.12% | 2:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
Showing 25 of 282 predictions.