Prediction statistics
How the xG.Football model performs on real data: the full journal of predictions saved before kickoff, and how they turned out.
14
Predictions logged
100%
Accuracy (settled)
59.9%
Average probability
8
Leagues in sample
Each row is a prediction stored before kick-off and its subsequent settlement.
| Date | Match | Market | Model choice | Odds | Criteria matched | Probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Serie A
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.65
Pinnacle
|
|
65.51% | 3:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primeira Liga
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.27
Bet365
|
|
76.26% | 2:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
NPFL
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
—
|
|
71.35% | 3:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Premiership
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.18
Bet365
|
|
74.46% | 3:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Premiership
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.53
Bet365
|
|
74.46% | 5:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Friendlies
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.38
Pinnacle
|
|
56.5% | 2:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Friendlies
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.65
Pinnacle
|
|
51.36% | 3:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
NPFL
|
Match outcome | Away win (2) · 1:2 |
—
|
|
50.07% | 0:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
NPFL
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
2.90
Bet365
|
|
26.93% | 0:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Segunda División
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.56
Pinnacle
|
|
66.43% | 2:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
NPFL
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
—
|
|
58.57% | 2:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
NPFL
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
—
|
|
58.57% | 2:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Premier League
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 3:1 |
—
|
|
58.57% | 3:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera División
|
Match outcome | Away win (2) · 1:2 |
—
|
|
50.07% | 1:4 |
Correct
Calculated
|
Showing 14 of 14 predictions.