Prediction statistics
How the xG.Football model performs on real data: the full journal of predictions saved before kickoff, and how they turned out.
25
Predictions logged
80%
Accuracy (settled)
70.5%
Average probability
10
Leagues in sample
Each row is a prediction stored before kick-off and its subsequent settlement.
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Shots on target: 2
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| Date | Match | Market | Model choice | Odds | Criteria matched | Probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Liga Profesional Argentina
|
Shots on target | Under 9.5 |
1.67
Bet365
|
|
64.56% | 14 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Shots on target | Under 9.5 |
1.67
Bet365
|
|
63.49% | 8 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
League One
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
60.82% | 9 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Nations League
|
Shots on target | Under 10.5 |
1.80
Bet365
|
|
80.03% | 8 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Nations League
|
Shots on target | Over 8.5 |
1.91
Bet365
|
|
73.34% | 6 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Major League Soccer
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
68.26% | 18 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Nations League
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
69.92% | 13 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Major League Soccer
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
67.85% | 13 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Nations League
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
67.85% | 10 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Nations League
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
69.78% | 9 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Friendlies
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
67.85% | 8 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Nations League
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
67.85% | 13 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Major League Soccer
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
67.85% | 9 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
League One
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
67.85% | 7 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Segunda División
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
67.85% | 10 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Nations League
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
67.85% | 5 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Segunda División
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
67.85% | 8 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Nations League
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
67.85% | 10 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga I
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
62.18% | 10 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Eredivisie
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
82.04% | 11 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Eredivisie
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
82.04% | 9 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Eredivisie
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
82.04% | 14 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Eredivisie
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
77.41% | 6 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Eredivisie
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
77.41% | 9 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
— | 14 |
Correct
Calculated
|
Showing 25 of 25 predictions.