Prediction statistics
How the xG.Football model performs on real data: the full journal of predictions saved before kickoff, and how they turned out.
167
Predictions logged
66%
Accuracy (settled)
63.8%
Average probability
22
Leagues in sample
Each row is a prediction stored before kick-off and its subsequent settlement.
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Shots on target: 27
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| Date | Match | Market | Model choice | Odds | Criteria matched | Probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Championship
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
1.83
Bet365
|
|
52.42% | 8 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Championship
|
Shots on target | Over 8.5 |
1.83
Bet365
|
|
54.78% | 6 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga Profesional Argentina
|
Shots on target | Under 9.5 |
1.67
Bet365
|
|
64.56% | 14 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
La Liga
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
1.73
Bet365
|
|
57.79% | 9 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Shots on target | Over 9.5 |
2.10
Bet365
|
|
49.99% | 8 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Major League Soccer
|
Shots on target | Under 10.5 |
1.80
Bet365
|
|
54.93% | 9 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
La Liga
|
Shots on target | Under 9.5 |
1.83
Bet365
|
|
52.75% | 8 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Ligue 1
|
Shots on target | Under 10.5 |
1.73
Bet365
|
|
61.45% | 10 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Shots on target | Over 8.5 |
1.91
Bet365
|
|
54.85% | 7 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Shots on target | Under 10.5 |
1.91
Bet365
|
|
56.27% | 5 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga MX
|
Shots on target | Over 8.5 |
1.67
Bet365
|
|
60.48% | 11 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga MX
|
Shots on target | Over 8.5 |
1.80
Bet365
|
|
56.78% | 10 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga Profesional Argentina
|
Shots on target | Under 8.5 |
1.83
Bet365
|
|
54.51% | 10 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
La Liga
|
Shots on target | Under 11.5 |
1.73
Bet365
|
|
62.8% | 10 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Championship
|
Shots on target | Under 8.5 |
1.91
Bet365
|
|
50.96% | 8 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Championship
|
Shots on target | Under 9.5 |
1.83
Bet365
|
|
55.85% | 10 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Shots on target | Under 9.5 |
1.67
Bet365
|
|
63.49% | 8 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Ligue 1
|
Shots on target | Under 9.5 |
2.00
Bet365
|
|
50.19% | 17 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Shots on target | Under 9.5 |
1.73
Bet365
|
|
58.58% | 10 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Shots on target | Under 9.5 |
1.73
Bet365
|
|
60.31% | 10 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Shots on target | Under 9.5 |
1.67
Bet365
|
|
61.69% | 11 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
League One
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
60.82% | 9 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Shots on target | Under 9.5 |
1.73
Bet365
|
|
60.24% | 10 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Shots on target | Under 9.5 |
1.73
Bet365
|
|
56.77% | 16 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Nations League
|
Shots on target | Under 10.5 |
1.80
Bet365
|
|
80.03% | 8 |
Correct
Calculated
|
Showing 25 of 167 predictions.