Prediction statistics
How the xG.Football model performs on real data: the full journal of predictions saved before kickoff, and how they turned out.
139
Predictions logged
67%
Accuracy (settled)
66.8%
Average probability
36
Leagues in sample
Each row is a prediction stored before kick-off and its subsequent settlement.
| Date | Match | Market | Model choice | Odds | Criteria matched | Probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Primera División
|
Yellow cards | Under 5.5 |
1.70
Betano
|
|
62.99% | 5 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera División
|
Yellow cards | Under 6.5 |
1.75
Betano
|
|
70.64% | 3 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Champions League
|
Yellow cards | Under 4.5 |
1.67
1xBet
|
|
68.34% | 3 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Championship
|
Yellow cards | Over 2.5 |
1.65
Betano
|
|
68.01% | 2 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga Profesional Argentina
|
Shots on target | Under 9.5 |
1.67
Bet365
|
|
64.56% | 14 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Ligue 1
|
Yellow cards | Under 4.5 |
1.62
1xBet
|
|
62.65% | 2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Major League Soccer
|
Yellow cards | Under 4.5 |
1.62
Betano
|
|
63.08% | 7 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Major League Soccer
|
Yellow cards | Under 4.5 |
1.67
Betano
|
|
64.76% | 2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera División
|
Yellow cards | Under 5.5 |
1.62
Betano
|
|
72.82% | 1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Jupiler Pro League
|
Yellow cards | Under 4.5 |
1.75
Betano
|
|
66.04% | 4 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera División
|
Yellow cards | Under 5.5 |
1.80
Betano
|
|
65.64% | 3 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primeira Liga
|
Yellow cards | Over 3.5 |
1.67
Betano
|
|
65.58% | 1 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie B
|
Yellow cards | Under 5.5 |
1.75
Betano
|
|
68.64% | 6 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Shots on target | Under 9.5 |
1.67
Bet365
|
|
63.49% | 8 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Ligue 1
|
Yellow cards | Under 5.5 |
1.62
1xBet
|
|
65.93% | 1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Ligue 1
|
Yellow cards | Under 4 |
1.80
Betano
|
|
63.87% | 7 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Yellow cards | Under 7.5 |
1.73
Bet365
|
|
78.7% | 6 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera División
|
Yellow cards | Under 5.5 |
1.98
Betano
|
|
60.84% | 3 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Yellow cards | Under 5.5 |
1.83
Bet365
|
|
61.9% | 5 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Yellow cards | Under 5.5 |
1.67
Bet365
|
|
65.73% | 0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Yellow cards | Under 6.5 |
1.73
Bet365
|
|
62.39% | 7 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie B
|
Yellow cards | Under 4.5 |
1.62
Bet365
|
|
66.88% | 2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
League One
|
Shots on target | Over 7.5 |
—
|
|
60.82% | 9 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
League One
|
Corners | Over 8.5 |
—
|
|
65.31% | 10 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Yellow cards | Under 4.5 |
1.62
Bet365
|
|
66.26% | 2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
Showing 25 of 139 predictions.