Prediction statistics
How the xG.Football model performs on real data: the full journal of predictions saved before kickoff, and how they turned out.
357
Predictions logged
53%
Accuracy (settled)
59.2%
Average probability
48
Leagues in sample
Each row is a prediction stored before kick-off and its subsequent settlement.
| Date | Match | Market | Model choice | Odds | Criteria matched | Probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
League One
|
Corners | Over 8.5 |
—
|
|
65.31% | 10 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga Profesional Argentina
|
Corners | Under 8.5 |
1.98
Bet365
|
|
54.48% | 14 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
La Liga
|
Corners | Under 8.5 |
1.82
Bet365
|
|
54.62% | 11 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Superliga
|
Corners | Over 10 |
1.78
Bet365
|
|
58.45% | 6 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Primeira Liga
|
Corners | Under 9.5 |
1.90
Bet365
|
|
56.42% | 11 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga Profesional Argentina
|
Corners | Over 9 |
1.98
Bet365
|
|
52.25% | 7 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera División
|
Corners | Under 8.5 |
1.85
Bet365
|
|
59.6% | 12 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Jupiler Pro League
|
Corners | Under 10 |
1.90
Bet365
|
|
52.56% | 14 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Segunda División
|
Corners | Under 10 |
1.82
Bet365
|
|
55.75% | 5 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Jupiler Pro League
|
Corners | Under 10 |
1.78
Bet365
|
|
56.12% | 7 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Ligue 1
|
Corners | Under 10 |
1.83
Pinnacle
|
|
55.32% | 7 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Eliteserien
|
Corners | Over 11.5 |
1.90
Bet365
|
|
53.26% | 24 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Super Liga
|
Corners | Under 9 |
1.85
Bet365
|
|
60.94% | 16 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Superliga
|
Corners | Over 9.5 |
1.82
Bet365
|
|
54.71% | 6 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Ligue 1
|
Corners | Under 9.5 |
1.85
Pinnacle
|
|
54.99% | 7 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Premier League
|
Corners | Under 10 |
1.86
Pinnacle
|
|
56.42% | 11 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Premier League
|
Corners | Over 10 |
1.88
Pinnacle
|
|
54.86% | 6 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Ekstraklasa
|
Corners | Under 10 |
1.80
Bet365
|
|
58.67% | 11 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Veikkausliiga
|
Corners | Under 10.5 |
1.83
Bet365
|
|
66.68% | 10 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Superliga
|
Corners | Under 10 |
1.98
Bet365
|
|
54.27% | 7 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Allsvenskan
|
Corners | Over 10.5 |
1.90
Bet365
|
|
53.46% | 14 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Premiership
|
Corners | Over 11 |
1.95
Bet365
|
|
51.68% | 8 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Ekstraklasa
|
Corners | Under 10.5 |
1.83
Bet365
|
|
56.63% | 11 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga MX
|
Corners | Over 9.5 |
1.82
Bet365
|
|
56.88% | 8 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Major League Soccer
|
Corners | Over 9.5 |
1.85
Bet365
|
|
55.26% | 8 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
Showing 25 of 357 predictions.