Prediction statistics
How the xG.Football model performs on real data: the full journal of predictions saved before kickoff, and how they turned out.
25
Predictions logged
46%
Accuracy (settled)
67.1%
Average probability
15
Leagues in sample
Each row is a prediction stored before kick-off and its subsequent settlement.
| Date | Match | Market | Model choice | Odds | Criteria matched | Probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
League One
|
Corners | Over 8.5 |
—
|
|
65.31% | 10 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Super Liga
|
Corners | Under 9 |
1.85
Bet365
|
|
60.94% | 16 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Veikkausliiga
|
Corners | Under 10.5 |
1.83
Bet365
|
|
66.68% | 10 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
League One
|
Corners | Over 10 |
1.85
Bet365
|
|
62.49% | 12 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Corners | Under 10 |
1.81
Pinnacle
|
|
60.14% | 10 |
Push
Calculated
|
|
|
Ekstraklasa
|
Corners | Under 10 |
1.82
Bet365
|
|
59.49% | 13 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Europa Conference League
|
Corners | Over 8.5 |
1.80
Bet365
|
|
63.82% | 9 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Europa Conference League
|
Corners | Over 10 |
1.78
Bet365
|
|
63.1% | 5 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Super Liga
|
Corners | Under 10.5 |
1.80
Bet365
|
|
65.52% | 11 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Premier League
|
Corners | Under 9 |
1.80
Pinnacle
|
|
62.22% | 10 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Europa Conference League
|
Corners | Over 9.5 |
1.80
Bet365
|
|
62.85% | 15 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Ekstraklasa
|
Corners | Over 8.5 |
2.02
Bet365
|
|
67.17% | 8 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Segunda División
|
Corners | Under 9.5 |
1.85
Bet365
|
|
67.79% | 12 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Superliga
|
Corners | Under 11 |
1.85
Bet365
|
|
77.26% | 12 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Corners | Under 11 |
1.80
Bet365
|
|
72.69% | 21 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Corners | Over 10.5 |
1.83
Bet365
|
|
67.6% | 14 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Friendlies
|
Corners | Under 9 |
1.85
Bet365
|
|
61.94% | 12 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Friendlies
|
Corners | Under 8.5 |
1.80
Bet365
|
|
68.36% | 12 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Nations League
|
Corners | Under 9.5 |
1.80
Bet365
|
|
75.9% | 9 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Friendlies
|
Corners | Under 8.5 |
1.83
Pinnacle
|
|
78.25% | 7 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Segunda División
|
Corners | Under 9.5 |
1.91
Bet365
|
|
84.55% | 12 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
UEFA Nations League
|
Corners | Over 8.5 |
—
|
|
64.37% | 12 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Major League Soccer
|
Corners | Over 8.5 |
—
|
|
64.37% | 13 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Bundesliga
|
Corners | Over 8.5 |
—
|
|
— | 11 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
La Liga
|
Corners | Over 8.5 |
—
|
|
— | 7 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
Showing 25 of 25 predictions.