Prediction statistics
How the xG.Football model performs on real data: the full journal of predictions saved before kickoff, and how they turned out.
144
Predictions logged
31%
Accuracy (settled)
27.9%
Average probability
47
Leagues in sample
Each row is a prediction stored before kick-off and its subsequent settlement.
| Date | Match | Market | Model choice | Odds | Criteria matched | Probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
FKF Premier League
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
—
|
|
27.43% | — |
Pending
Calculated
|
|
|
FKF Premier League
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
—
|
|
28.89% | — |
Pending
Calculated
|
|
|
FKF Premier League
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
—
|
|
28.89% | — |
Pending
Calculated
|
|
|
League One
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.95
Pinnacle
|
|
27.32% | 3:1 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Premier Division
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 2:2 |
3.33
Pinnacle
|
|
27.43% | 1:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Premier Division
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 2:2 |
3.91
Pinnacle
|
|
28.89% | 3:2 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Ligue 1
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.01
Pinnacle
|
|
26.93% | 2:1 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga Profesional Argentina
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.07
Pinnacle
|
|
27.43% | 1:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Primeira Liga
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.29
Pinnacle
|
|
28.19% | 1:4 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.30
Bet365
|
|
28.44% | 1:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga Profesional Argentina
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
2.88
Bet365
|
|
27.43% | 2:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
La Liga
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 2:2 |
3.25
Pinnacle
|
|
25.81% | 3:3 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.36
Pinnacle
|
|
— | 2:1 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Superliga
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 2:2 |
4.42
Pinnacle
|
|
27.51% | 3:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga I
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.07
Pinnacle
|
|
24.08% | 0:1 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga MX
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.63
Pinnacle
|
|
26.85% | 3:3 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga MX
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 2:2 |
3.77
Pinnacle
|
|
26.85% | 1:2 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.75
Bet365
|
|
28.89% | 1:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga Profesional Argentina
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.10
Bet365
|
|
27.43% | 5:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 2:2 |
3.40
Bet365
|
|
28.44% | 2:1 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera Nacional
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.35
Pinnacle
|
|
32.8% | 2:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera Nacional
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
2.55
Pinnacle
|
|
32.8% | 2:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera División
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
3.11
Pinnacle
|
|
27.43% | 0:1 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga Profesional Argentina
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
2.80
Bet365
|
|
27.43% | 1:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
NPFL
|
Match outcome | Draw (X) · 1:1 |
2.90
Bet365
|
|
27.43% | 0:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
Showing 25 of 144 predictions.