Prediction statistics
How the xG.Football model performs on real data: the full journal of predictions saved before kickoff, and how they turned out.
291
Predictions logged
56%
Accuracy (settled)
57.4%
Average probability
56
Leagues in sample
Each row is a prediction stored before kick-off and its subsequent settlement.
| Date | Match | Market | Model choice | Odds | Criteria matched | Probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Ligue 1
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
—
|
|
52.3% | — |
Pending
Calculated
|
|
|
Ligue 1
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.50
1xBet
|
|
58.57% | 2:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
League One
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
2.31
Pinnacle
|
|
52.3% | 0:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
FKF Premier League
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.95
Bet365
|
|
64.12% | 0:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Ligue 1
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.50
Pinnacle
|
|
58.57% | 1:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Division Profesional - Clausura
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.61
Pinnacle
|
|
55.82% | 1:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Super Liga
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
2.55
Bet365
|
|
55.82% | 0:0 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Allsvenskan
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.78
Pinnacle
|
|
55.78% | 1:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Allsvenskan
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.32
Pinnacle
|
|
55.78% | 4:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.65
Pinnacle
|
|
65.51% | 3:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Ekstraklasa
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
2.58
Pinnacle
|
|
52.34% | 2:3 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Super League 1
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.18
Bet365
|
|
64.12% | 1:3 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Segunda División
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
2.25
Bet365
|
|
50.61% | 0:1 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Ligue 1
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
2.61
Pinnacle
|
|
58.57% | 2:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Segunda División
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.80
Bet365
|
|
50.61% | 5:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera División
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
2.25
Bet365
|
|
61.6% | 1:2 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Liga MX
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.66
Pinnacle
|
|
53.32% | 3:3 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Major League Soccer
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.55
Bet365
|
|
57.62% | 6:2 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.36
Bet365
|
|
57.21% | 1:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Serie A
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.50
Bet365
|
|
64.12% | 4:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera Nacional
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
2.14
Pinnacle
|
|
47.08% | 1:1 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera Nacional
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
1.73
Pinnacle
|
|
51.9% | 2:1 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
Primera Nacional
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 1:0 |
1.60
Pinnacle
|
|
47.08% | 2:0 |
Correct
Calculated
|
|
|
La Liga
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 3:2 |
1.90
Bet365
|
|
61.48% | 2:2 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
|
|
Ligue 1
|
Match outcome | Home win (1) · 2:1 |
3.67
Pinnacle
|
|
46.31% | 0:2 |
Incorrect
Calculated
|
Showing 25 of 291 predictions.